Wave of foreclosures coming to San Diego?

George Lorimer
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Wave of foreclosures coming to San Diego?
San Diego County Housing Report: A Wave of Foreclosures? August 11, 2020

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Foreclosures and short sales have played an exceedingly small part in the housing market for years, yet many feel that is about to change. The Distressed Market - Foreclosures and short sales make up less than half a percent of the listing inventory and demand. 

Due to the recession, everybody is jumping to the worst-case scenario for housing, the inevitable wave of foreclosures to come. 

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It is crucial to immediately point out the simple fact that just because the economy is in the midst of a recession does not mean that the housing market will tank, values must go down, and many homeowners will lose their homes due to foreclosures or short sales. In fact, in the past five recessions, only two have led to declines in real estate values, the recession that began in 1991, and the Great Recession that started in 2008. Both were fueled by asset bubbles in housing that eventually popped. The recession in 1991 was powered by the savings and loan crisis. The Great Recession was driven by subprime lending and risky investments in mortgage securities. Thus, a wave of foreclosures ensued.
 

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Today, there are only 11 foreclosures and 5 short sales to purchase in all of San Diego County, which is 16 total distressed listings, the lowest level since initially tracking distressed listings back in 2012.

To put this in perspective there are approximately 4000+ homes for sale and 16 are distressed/foreclosure/short sale. 

It represents only 0.4% of the active listing inventory and 0.8% of demand. Compare that to January 2012 when there were 1,613 distressed listings, 23% of the active listing inventory, and demand (the last 30-days of pending sales) was at 2,945 pending, 56% of total demand. Steven Thomas
Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences.
 

 

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